The U.S. Congress recently passed a large debt and spending plan ostensibly intended to “stimulate” the U.S. economy. Let’s take a look at the final vote, and the political implications thereof.
It is No Coincedence
The Democrats could not pass the bill strictly along party lines: They needed exactly 3 Republican votes in the Senate. (A certain procedural vote required 60 votes, there are only 58 Democrat Senators, and Teddy Kennedy was unavailable for medical reasons. 60 – 57 = 3.) If the Senate Republicans voted in lockstep, as their House colleagues had done, they would block the bill. It would be politically untenable for Republicans to do this.
The minimum support Republicans could offer the bill was 3 Senate votes, which is exactly what they did. (Specter, Snowe, Collins.)
The Future (2010)
Now we will have to wait and see what the next 624 days bring. The Democrats “own” this bill, so if things pick up, they will try to link those changes to the bill, and all its incorporated policies. If things go wrong, Republicans will do the same. Of course, some things will go well, and others badly. The Democrats will have the advantages of a sympathetic media and the bully pulpit of the White House, while Republicans will enjoy the advantage of a selection bias for bad news.
Irrespective of other events, which could improve Republican prospects in 2010, I predict that an October 2010 unemployment rate of at least 7% will translate to significant (at least 50% of 1994) Republican gains, in large part due to the discipline they demonstrated on this bill.
